Turn defensive after 1st “reversed follow through day”

昨短線受惠奧巴馬當選憧憬寬鬆貨幣政策延續後，市場即將目光轉向財政懸崖。港股超買後以７２７億大成交急跌（除去配股股份２７的～７０億元及３９００的～５億額外成交仍有６５０億，３個月平均為５１０億元），為第一個“reversed follow through day”。

恒指國指跌穿昨低點（４天雙頂）及２０天線，MACD第二次轉負。

歐美股市仍弱，內地股市亦然。內地股市急跌，靠內地股市推升港股幻想破滅。認為資金將從超買的港股獲利。ＳＰＸ弱，９天ＲＳＩ仍未到２０－３０的超賣水平。

Bull certs / Bear certs ratio: 2.21x, exceptionally high. Bull certs +30%, Bear certs +15% (vs 30Oct). Key bull certs zone 21100-21600 (=4940 HSI futures), Key bear certs zone 22400-22500 (=710 HSI futures)

VHSI rose above 1.5-month double bottoms / range, but absolute value of 17.6 is still low à Seems market-wide plunge is still unlikely

短期似難再有重大利好消息出台，而市場反應亦開始對壞消息「重視」

轉為防守，減ＥＴＦ及high-beta，但仍可持有走勢理想／穩定增長個股

2012-11-01 資金仍盛，市底強

國指及恒指仍守２０天線上，昨上升，成交大。國指升穿小時圖雙底，小型調整可能完結。

資金仍盛：

人民幣、港元仍強，金管局昨再注27億港元

資金吸納多隻追蹤中國股票的ETF。A50中國(2823)過去兩周增發3.3億個基金單位，吸資逾27億元。美國上市的新華富時25 ETF截至上周五止的過去兩周吸資近78億港元

策略：未來１－２星期似仍是安全期，仍可選股短線炒買。現時似Ａ股最值搏，而國指亦較恒指好

Focus list: 2823, 3049, 135

中國國家能源局修訂《天然氣利用政策》草案，首次將「城際客貨運輸車輛」列為「優先使用天然氣」類別。昆侖能源(135)將受惠，因其中一項主要業務為LNG(主要用作汽車及船舶燃料)供應

Others: Premium to NAV of iShares A50 indicates stronger trend of Chinese stock market ahead

The change of premium or discount to NAV of iShares A50 is a good indicator of to FTSE A50 index. I.e. premium increase (while FTSE A50 index drops) hints an uptrend for FTSE A50 index afterwards, and vice versa.

Note: FTSE A50 index is the index which A50 tracks and has a strong correlation to Chinese stock market indexes Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen 300). (Fig. 2)

As the premium has been increasing in the past 3 months while FTSE A50 index was on a downtrend, it hints on an uptrend for FTSE A50 index and thus the Chinese stock market.